Last night President Bush gave a half-hour speech designed to prop up support for the Iraq war, which is becoming remarkably unpopular in spite of the lack of a real visible opposition to the Administration's plans. Before the speech last night, 57% of Americans felt that Bush and his cabinet actually deceived the country into the war in Iraq, and for the first time since the spectre of 9/11, Bush's favorability ratings on the terrorism and national security issues is in danger of falling below 50%.
I noticed Bush doesn't even have a 50% approval rating in South Dakota, for crying out loud (it's steady at 48)! And, his approval rating amongst independents is 17%. Seventeen! I suspect you can get seventeen per cent approval for things like Bubonic plague and the Detroit Lions; it's pretty embarrassing territory for a recently-victorious president.
In looking over the speech, it seems pretty obvious that the White House spin machines are looking to recreate some of that 1969 Nixon magic. With support for Vietnam flagging, and just two weeks removed from what was then the largest peace demonstration in U. S. history, Richard Nixon delivered his famous "silent majority" speech, laying out a vague plan to "win the peace" in Vietnam. The public went along with it, for a while, and Nixon got a 16-point jump in his approval ratings along with a letter of bipartisan support signed by over 400 legislators in the Democratic-controlled Congress.
It won't work this time, for about three reasons that seem sort of obvious. Because they seem obvious to me (and I haven't even been paying all that much attention lately), I suppose they're quite obvious to many other folks too.
The first thing: Nixon was a new president in 1969, just elected. Vietnam was still associated with LBJ, and Nixon used the "silent majority" to introduce his Vietnamization policy, which resonated with a public desperate for any new plan with a name. The sheen of Vietnamization wore off when it was clear that it wasn't working, and the 1970 Kent State massacre certainly didn't help, but throughout the rest of 1969, Nixon was given the benefit of the doubt.
Bush won't be given the benefit of the doubt, not by most of the public, anyway. They've already heard about "Iraqification" and the training of the Iraqi security forces, and the progress toward democracy, blah blah blah. The country of Iraq is closer to civil war than at any point in my parents' lifetime, and although the press is still giving Bush the benefit of the doubt, the public is trending towards the "leave me alone, this was YOUR idea" approach. "You spent HOW MANY billion?"
Secondly, Nixon was framing his speech in opposition to a clearly identifiable, visible movement, the hippie peacenik counterculture generation of the late '60's. People dug the tunes, but in 1969, most Americans were still pretty unkeen on the hair and the free love. By equating "withdrawal" with "hippies," Nixon very effectively cornered just about everybody to the right of Timothy Leary into backing his plan, however tentatively.
Again, Bush doesn't have a group like this to pick on. Right-wing talk radio types have been frothing about liberals for years now, even though all the levers of government are controlled by conservatives. We're numb to it, but the conventional wisdom still posits that it MIGHT work on part of the electorate. I think this is what led Karl Rove to make such desperate (but calculated) remarks last week. It's not that he's a genius, it's just that he's ruthless, and even that isn't working, so he's going back to the Nixon playbook for another go-round. Equate liberals with traitors. Lather. Rinse. Repeat. Fox News called Chuck Hagel, the conservative senator from Nebraska (one of the reddest states in the union) a "liberal" after his remarks that we're losing in Iraq and that the president is disconnected from reality. It takes quite a leap to equate Bill Kristol and Chuck Hagel with Michael Moore, but the illogic isn't important. Rove is desperate, and he needs all the typical liberal bogeymen in place (media, academics, Democrats, dissenters, whatever) if the rest of his Nixon tricks are going to have any effect.
So Bush can't blame this war on another president, he won't announce a new strategy, and he doesn't have an obvious political force to blame the wavering support on, as much as the right-wing talkers might try. This brings me to the third point: the "silent majority" appears to be opposing Bush, very quietly and very bitterly. As much as the news channels have been desperately promoting the various turning points of the Iraq war, not one of them has panned out. Again, my depressing little win streak comes to mind, the one where I take whatever the Pentagon says is happening and bet that in fact the opposite thing is happening. So far, so good! But one-on-one, it's hard to find an individual, conservative or otherwise, that's real gung-ho about this war right now. This doesn't make me happy. In fact, it sort of amuses me and troubles me that I still have to defend my view that a diplomatic solution to the problem of Saddam Hussein was far preferable to the current situation (and if Iraqis had more than about ten hours of intermittent electricity a day, they might e-mail their agreeance with my stance). Oh well.
There is still a very big assumption inside the beltway, an assumption that the U. S. can't withdraw from Iraq. I disagree. People argue that Iraq will become chaotic and a breeding ground for terrorism and a bedfellow with Iran. Well, all three of those things are happening with frightening speed right now, and the number one reason they are happening is our continued occupation presence. Period. Iran's foreign minister visited Iraq last week, and for some reason, his trip wasn't dangerous or threatening. Meanwhile, every time one of our government leaders pops by Baghdad, the town has to shut down to prevent mass political assassination attempts. The assumption that the situation would automatically worsen BECAUSE we left is arrogant and increasingly incorrect. Oh, and Iraq went from zero international terrorist attacks from 1994-2000 to 32 last year. We're running Iraq now. Obviously, then, if we left, it would go up? I'm afraid I don't understand. No serious foreign affairs expert would argue that the U. S. presence in Iraq is LIMITING the interest in jihadist terrorism; quite the opposite. And, of course, the Iraqi insurgency, which is providing bundles of daily attacks on U. S. and Iraqi security forces every day, would cease attacking us... if we left. I know, I know, the Sunnis and Kurds and Shia might shoot each other, but the odds of that are higher with us there, I think. Plus, right now WE'RE shooting at everybody, too, and we have lots of fancy guns.
As for the two tired arguments in rebuttal to my last paragraph: no, young Iraqi men aren't going to come to New York and blow themselves up if they are denied the chance to do it down the block in Baghdad. That's ridiculous, and if it wasn't repeated so often by the administration, it wouldn't even merit a serious reply. In fact, and I know this will come as a surprise to some, the nation of Iraq has never attacked anything in America. Inconvenient, perhaps, but true. Also, I really can't be criticized for distinguishing between "terrorists" and "Iraqi insurgents" because the president has started to distinguish between them. He has to, because the only possible way to make any security progress in Iraq is to negotiate with the leaders of the people trying to kill U. S. troops. Everybody knows that, but Republicans have been busy calling Democrats traitors for months now for suggesting exactly that. Anyway, our government is negotiating with Iraqi insurgents; our government is also lying about it out of political panic.
Seriously, read the speech from last night. Bush is no longer a "with us or against us" guy. He's started to equivocate on all of his statements about the resistance in Iraq. Read the speech. It's fascinating, and you'll have to read it yourself, because nobody at CNN is going to challenge the guy... (Let me clarify: I'm in favor of negotiating with the various factions of the resistance in Iraq, just as I am in favor of eliminating those factions that are engaging in indiscriminate killing. Both things are very hard to do, but necessary, and the president should be challenged by the press due to his brazen hypocrisy, not due to his tentative foray into the actual real world of geopolitics).
One final thought: Do any of you know anybody, anybody at all, that doesn't "support the troops," whatever that means? I say whatever that means because Russ Feingold's amendments to restore veterans' benefits to the 2005 and 2006 budget keep getting defeated by conservatives. I don't know what "support the troops" means. I don't want them to be killed. Is that support? Life, especially faced with the violent loss of it, is pretty crucial, right? I don't want them to be maimed, and I don't want them to be used for cynical political or business pursuits, ever. I'd prefer that our reserve forces be kept in reserve, rested and ready for a real threat from a real nation. Is that support? I know people that have been in Iraq, and they seem to have returned in one piece, without haunting nightmares, and for that I'm EXTREMELY grateful. I don't wish that on anybody. Drug addiction and low morale are plaguing some of the divisions in Iraq that are enduring their second extra summer of dangerous work in the desert. They still don't have the armor they complained about two years ago. Is that support?
I'm no military expert, and I don't wish to be, but I'm pretty sure the soldiers in the field didn't make these war decisions. They're just following orders. Many of them have exemplary motives for serving their country. Some are dolts, some are misogynists, and some are racists, but, as with any group, I think you can teach them if they live long enough. Some are a lot like me. They're all human beings, just like their enemies/friends in Iraq, and I have no quarrel with them. Is that support? I don't have a ribbon on my car. Is that support?
In the instances I've heard it lately, "support the troops" has become a code phrase for "shut off your brain." I don't support that.