First, a few words about Iran, the world's biggest sovereign enigma. Iran ushered in a wave of reforms under President Mohammad Khatami throughout the late 1990's, and based on the tremendous vitality of Iran's youthful population, there was a lot of hope for gradual democratization and liberalization in that country. Khatami's presidency was the second in a row that emphasized more diplomatic outreach and a general foreign policy of detente that did much to stabilize the region, however uneasily, after the messy Iran-Iraq war of the 1980's. Because of Iran's neutrality, and because Iran's radical right-wing clerics still have the ultimate authority over all political affairs, Western observers still spent much of the optimistic 1990's watching for trigger-points that could start a new era of mistrust and stridency. Some of the trigger-point possibilities: oil shocks or supply disruptions (CHECK!), resulting in a huge influx of petroleum money for Iran; a foreign policy situation that radicalizes the Iranian public (LOOK AT ALL THOSE CHECKS!), a slide back toward Islamic fundamentalism (ETERNAL CHECK!), evidence that Iran is seeking nuclear weapons capability (TRIPLE CHECK!), and, obviously, the chance that several of the factors could coalesce, resulting in a political backlash in Iran.
Check.
In August, Khatami's presidency ended, and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad assumed the office. To say Ahmadinejad is a right-wing reactionary is sort of an understatement; even if you capitalize all the letters, it seems like the necessary emphasis is missing. Ahmadinejad and members of his cabinet have made ridiculous and inflammatory statements about Israel. They're the type of statements that could almost be laughed off and dismissed, except: Israel has The Bomb, Iran wants The Bomb, although their main Islamic partner, Pakistan, has The Bomb. The Bomb and The Oil are the two factors that drive every geopolitical calculation in this part of the world. Iran's religious clerics, very flush with billions in post-Katrina, post-Iraq-demolition oil cash, happen to agree very much with Ahmadinejad's acopalyptic rantings about Western influence and Jewish evil.
Today there's a news story about Ahmadinejad's administration seeking a more active foreign policy. He claimed in a speech yesterday that the previous two administrations, especially Khatami's two terms, did much to weaken Iran's standing in the world and distanced Iran from the goals of the 1979 Islamic Revolution. The rhetoric is frightening, and it echoes the neocons' vitriol in this country about how the relative peace and prosperity of the 1990's were a terrible weak point for America. I don't get it, and most decent people don't get it, but it doesn't matter what the populations of Iran and the U. S. think. They aren't being asked. The leaders of each country are convinced that diplomacy is a sign of weakness, and the leaders of both countries have deluded themselves to the efficacy of their narrow worldview that there's little chance of reality breaking through the fog. Two examples of the delusion: Bush's broken-record mantras about liberating the people of Iraq, and Ahmadinejad's claim that reaction from around the world had been "mostly positive" to his comments that the Holocaust was a myth. Seriously, these people are in charge of the U. S. and Iran, their militaries, and their money.
It is in this context that an article on Wayne Madsen's website scared me today. The article talks about the final preparations by the U. S. to strike Iran, possibly with tactical nuclear weapons. Madsen is a former intelligence agent who, although quite paranoid, is also not certifiably loony. Many of his postings are quite accurate, or are borne out through time, like his assertion that the CIA was operating secret prisons in the former Soviet Union, a charge that seemed sort-of tinfoil-hat at the time, but is, well, completely freaking true. Anyway, his sources talk about the targeting of the Bushehr nuclear power plant, uranium mining and enrichment facilities, technology centers, radioisotope laboratories. This is a lot of bombing, folks, and the first strike would almost certainly include air bases, military command centers, etc.
About six weeks ago, Putin met with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Erdogan and was assured that Turkey would not allow the use of its bases by the United States in order to attack Iran. Russia is a key trading partner or Iran, and a source of technical expertise. There are many Russian technicians working in the country now, assisting Iran with its power plant infrastructure and with (conventional) weapons development. Notice that in December, Condoleezza Rice visited Turkey. So did FBI Director Robert Mueller, and so did CIA Director Porter Goss. You suppose they were just talking about soccer? The head of the Turkish Army just visited the Pentagon too.
Here's a crude summary of current viewpoints. War is very profitable for certain people, and NATO and the UN and diplomacy and widespread prosperity, respect for human rights and the free flow of information all reduce the need for war. The Cheney people can be viewed as opponents of all those things, since it is in their financial interest to oppose them. More on this in a future post...
Back to Iran. The weirdest element to this story involves Burma, or Myanmar, as they call it. That country is highly repressive and closely allied with China, which it borders to the south. Myanmar's capital was Rangoon, in the lowlands south. I say "was" because they just moved their capital, like, days ago. The capital was moved to Pyinmana, a remote city 200 miles north. The rumor is (and since I'm not James Bond, I can't confirm this) Chinese intelligence convinced Myanmar to move its capital to avoid the monsoon rains next summer. The monsoon winds and rains will be radioactive next summer, if the U. S. uses tactical nukes against Iran this winter or spring. Voila! I don't know if it's true, but it's very strange that a nation would move its capital out of the way of the wind unless something was up. I assume they don't have advance warning of another devastating tsunami...
Anyway, a nuclear war would certainly start off Twenty-Ought-Six with a bang! Eat that, Dick Clark!
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